By: Katie Koenig
Global climate talks are coming to a head this week with the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference —also known as the Conference of the Parties 28, or COP28—in Dubai. With this past year of record heatwaves and droughts across the globe, the major issues at the conference are all the more urgent.1
Global food production is majorly at risk due to increasing temperatures and the food industry has a significant climate impact with massive methane emissions from livestock, nitrous oxide as a byproduct of fertilizers, and the ecosystem destabilization and emissions when converting natural land into farmland for crops. Heatwaves, floods, droughts, and viral infections are all increasing as well, not just in developing countries but in the U.S. as well.2
West Coast wildfires and droughts have a tremendous impact on air quality, agriculture, and overall ecological and humanitarian health. Uncharacteristic, disastrous flooding last year in California especially demonstrates the risks the whole nation faces with increased extreme weather events. The East Coast faced increased rainfall, rising sea levels and temperatures, and second-hand air pollution from wildfires even from across the country, while the Midwest has heatwaves and droughts alike, affecting agriculture and quality of life. Snow caps are melting in mountainous regions,the Southeast faced Hurricane Idalia this year, and the U.S. Caribbean was struck by Hurricane Maria in 2017, causing billions of dollars in damages.3
Climate change is a more urgent issue to address than ever, and the U.S. is certainly not the only nation to face the immediate effects. Delegates at COP28 are prepared to address the above issues and more, which I will highlight as a brief summary of major talking points this year.
Progress Assessment
The 2015 Paris Agreement required that nations set concrete goals for reducing their contributions to climate change. For the first time since the Paris Agreement was established, COP28 will assess countries’ progress and achievements of goals put forward. In addition, countries will develop new plans in response to actually meet climate goals, both from 2015 and new ones addressed and created this year.1
Each nation participating in the annual climate change talks comes with its own priorities and ambitions. One issue that arises year after year the COP is that of developing versus developed countries. The distinction is essential to a path forward because wealthier nations are expected to support poorer countries in their mitigation of and adaptation to climate change.
China is the leading country both in terms of renewable energy capacity and in coal consumption, producing 30% of all annual global emissions. It is also heavily experiencing the impacts from climate change with heat waves, flooding, and droughts. It considers itself a developing nation in COP28 talks, and many of its stances reflect this position.6 However, it is also historically the second producer of all carbon emissions, having contributed to 10% of carbon dioxide since 1850.7
The U.S. is currently the second largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, although historically it’s the largest producer of carbon emissions, responsible for 20% of all such emissions since 1850.7 This year, the Biden Administration passed the Inflation Reduction Act that provided a subsidy package for EVs and other green products worth over $360 billion dollars, which is expected to triple the U.S.’s clean energy capacity by 2030.6
The U.K. takes an interesting position this year because it has weakened some of its green policies and also approved dozens of new licenses for oil and gas exploration,6 although King Charles stands as a consistent figure in favor of climate change mitigation and reduction.2
In addition to individual countries, several intergovernmental blocs have emerged to engage in these negotiations. One bloc is the High Ambition Coalition, with notable members of the Marshall Islands, Costa Rica, U.S., and the E.U., that are demanding the most ambitious emissions targets. One particular goal is to ban all new fossil fuel production with COP28 and to restrict global emissions to peak levels before 2025.6
Another bloc, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), is a group that is disproportionately vulnerable to climate change effects like sea level rise due to being islands. They are particularly influential voices in COP28 when talking about the loss and damage fund and fossil fuel issue since they will experience the most immediate catastrophic impacts if global warming exceeds 1.5 Celsius from pre-industrial levels.6
Similarly, the Least Developed Country Group, with 46 nations as members, may have contributed the least to climate change mitigation efforts but they are the most vulnerable to its effects. With the Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC), they generally have greater ambitious goals and funding plans and demands for wealthy countries for COP28.6
Financial Burden
One controversial topic is the idea of financial responsibility being dependent on countries’ economies. Historically, richer nations like the U.S. have drastically overcontributed to global emissions in proportion to their size and population, so there is the belief, especially among developing countries that are disproportionately affected by climate change currently, that such nations should take on a greater financial responsibility to fund new initiatives across the world to reduce emissions and mitigate current climate impacts and disasters.1
Implementation of this has come in the form of the idea of a loss and damage fund that developing countries can rely on to adapt to worsening climate impacts. According to the UN, the fund would need to support an estimated $200 billion every year by 2030 to appropriately address rising humanitarian issues related to climate change.1
Certain developing countries want at least $100 billion by 2030 in the damage fund, and most, like fast developing countries such as China, India, Brazil, and South Africa,6 believe that developed countries with high GDPs should be required to subsidize it.1 China, as it has positioned itself as a developing country, also demands that wealthy, developed countries like the U.S. should do the most and act first both in climate policies and economic support of nations facing large impacts of climate change.6
Developed countries, especially the U.S. and the E.U., debate the necessity of private finance for this fund to lessen the burden on governments.1 The U.S. will likely face conflict here because it has pledged to provide no new climate funding to the U.N. this year, and also states that the loss and damage fund should be entirely voluntary. The E.U. specifically wants countries with large economies, including China, to finance this fund for poorer countries, rather than focusing on historical emissions.6
South Africa in particular already made a deal in 2021 at COP26 with the E.U., the U.S., and other countries to receive $8.5 billion in funding to shift from coal to renewable energy sources to provide a model for fuel switching, since its power grids are highly reliant on old coal plants.8 However, it still struggles with electricity demands that outstrip generation capacities, especially in the past winter.9. Many other African countries also want global funding for green energy projects.6 In South America, Brazil greatly supports the carbon credit market with carbon offset projects, a way for institutions to fund climate mitigation and emission reduction projects in return for offsetting their carbon emissions. Brazil notably has plans to monetise carbon offset projects in its forests, in particular, among other land restoration and conservation efforts.6
Fossil Fuels and Oil-Dependent Economies
Another topic is the idea of phasing down or stopping fossil fuel production entirely. COP26 already set the agreement to slowly phase out fossil fuels from energy markets, but now the question arises of how fast that should take place.1
G20 member countries, a bloc of richer countries that notably have contributed to over three quarters of global emissions, included nations like the U.S., China, and India, are split on this issue.4 The U.S. is pushing to phase out new fossil fuel production entirely.6 Russia is pushing for a slower phasing down of fossil fuels from the energy industry.1
The U.A.E. is a critical figure in this, as the climate envoy, Sultan al-Jaber, is also the president of the national oil company, Adnoc.5 Members of COP28 criticize this seeming conflict of interest, pointing out that talks should prioritize climate action rather than potential furthering of national economic interest. Sultan al-Jaber maintains that his unique position as president of COP28 allows him to bring nations with oil-based economies, like the U.A.E., more into climate talks without disregarding their financial networks and contexts. The U.A.E. specifically supports the phasing down of fossil fuels for renewable energy, not the complete banning of new fossil fuel production, like new power plants, from the market entirely.5
Renewable Energy
Certain countries have also brought up a potential agreement to support the expansion of renewable energy markets.6
The U.S. is one of the major backers of the idea of COP28 pledging to triple all nations’ renewable energy capacity by 2030, along with the E.U.6 The E.U. also wants nations to switch power plants and electricity grids entirely to renewable energy, with a focus on reducing emissions from the start instead of prioritizing emissions capture technology and strategies that still allow for emissions production.6
Learn More
Any major news outlet will be covering COP28 as it goes on this year, but you can find more information directly from the COP28 website, as well. You can also look into specific breakdowns of CO2 emissions by year through the website Our World in Data, and you can look by region through a map and a series of tables, with brief summaries of historical trends in emissions.
Resources
- “COP28: What key issues will be discussed at UN climate change conference?” by Reuters
- “From carbon capture to King Charles: what to look out for at Cop28” by The Guardian
- “FACT SHEET: Fifth National Climate Assessment Details Impacts of Climate Change on Regions Across the United States | OSTP” by The White House
- “G20 bloc fails to reach agreement on cutting fossil fuels” by Reuters
- “Cop28 host UAE planned to promote oil deals during climate talks” by The Guardian
- “COP28 attendees: Who is going to UN climate conference in Dubai?” by Reuters
- “Analysis: Which countries are historically responsible for climate change?” by Carbon Brief
- “South Africa to get $8.5 bln from U.S., EU and UK to speed up shift from coal” by Reuters
- “South Africa nearing end of daily power cuts, minister says” by Reuters